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"Business cycles."
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This time is different
Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, \"this time is different\"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned.
eBook
Macroeconomic fluctuations and policies
\"Born out of 15 years of teaching by Edouard Challe at institutions in France, the UK, and US, this textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies. Intended for students who will either go on to graduate study in economics or move directly to real-world jobs in banking, business, or government, the book applies these tools to a number of concrete issues that are encountered today. Challe uses a unified New Keynesian framework, used most commonly by academic researchers and central bankers. After a general introduction presenting some empirical and methodological elements, the book is divided into four parts. Part I provides the foundations of the modern theory of business-cycle fluctuations through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Part II turns to the regular business cycle: it first examines how aggregate demand and supply interact and propagate the impact of macroeconomic shocks, and then pays special attention to the workings of the labor market over the business cycle. Part III is devoted to conventional macroeconomic policies: monetary policy and fiscal policy. Part IV, on the liquidity trap and unconventional macroeconomic policies, has been specifically revised for this English edition. It discusses how the US fell into financial crisis and how the crisis spread to the rest of the world. It also explores unconventional policy choices made by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. It also discusses unconventional policy ideas like negative interest rates, high inflation targets, and price-level targeting. The book concludes with the study of the effects of fiscal policies and structural reforms in a liquidity trap. Chapters feature end-of-chapter problems, for which solutions will be provided\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF MICROECONOMIC SHOCKS: BEYOND HULTEN'S THEOREM
We provide a nonlinear characterization of the macroeconomic impact of microeconomic productivity shocks in terms of reduced-form nonparametric elasticities for efficient economies. We also show how microeconomic parameters are mapped to these reduced-form general equilibrium elasticities. In this sense, we extend the foundational theorem of Hulten (1978) beyond the first order to capture nonlinearities. Key features ignored by first-order approximations that play a crucial role are: structural microeconomic elasticities of substitution, network linkages, structural microeconomic returns to scale, and the extent of factor reallocation. In a business-cycle calibration with sectoral shocks, nonlinearities magnify negative shocks and attenuate positive shocks, resulting in an aggregate output distribution that is asymmetric (negative skewness), fattailed (excess kurtosis), and has a negative mean, even when shocks are symmetric and thin-tailed. Average output losses due to short-run sectoral shocks are an order of magnitude larger than the welfare cost of business cycles calculated by Lucas (1987). Nonlinearities can also cause shocks to critical sectors to have disproportionate macroeconomic effects, almost tripling the estimated impact of the 1970s oil shocks on world aggregate output. Finally, in a long-run growth context, nonlinearities, which underpin Baumol's cost disease via the increase over time in the sales shares of low-growth bottleneck sectors, account for a 20 percentage point reduction in aggregate TFP growth over the period 1948-2014 in the United States.
Journal Article
Business Cycles
In the years following its publication, F.A. Hayek & rsquo; s pioneering work on business cycles was regarded as an important challenge to what was later known as Keynesian macroeconomics. Today, as debates rage on over the monetary origins of the current economic and financial crisis, economists are once again paying heed to Hayek & rsquo; s thoughts on the repercussions of excessive central bank interventions. The latest editions in the University of Chicago Press & rsquo; s ongoing series The Collected Works of F.A. Hayek, these volumes bring together Hayek & rsquo; s work on what causes periods.
Book
Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus
The aim of this article is to survey the huge literature that has emerged in the last four decades following Nordhaus’s (Rev Econ Stud 42(2):169–190, 1975) publication on political business cycles (PBCs). I first propose some developments in history of thought to examine the context in which this ground-breaking contribution saw the light of the day. I also present a simplified version of Nordhaus’s model to highlight his key results. I detail some early critiques of this model and the fields of investigations to which they gave birth. I then focus on the institutional context and examine its influence on PBCs, the actual research agenda. Finally, I derive some paths for future research.
Journal Article
The little book of stock market cycles : how to take advantage of time-proven market patterns
Explains how to profit from recurring stock market patterns and cycles by providing actionable ideas that have stood the test of time and consistently outperformed the market.
Book
Secular cycles
Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles.
eBook
Disaster Risk and Business Cycles
Motivated by the evidence that risk premia are large and countercyclical, this paper studies a tractable real business cycle model with a small risk of economic disaster, such as the Great Depression, An increase in disaster risk leads to a decline of employment, output, investment, stock prices, and interest rates, and an increase in the expected return on risky assets. The model matches well data on quantities, asset prices, and particularly the relations between quantities and prices, suggesting that variation in aggregate risk plays a significant role in some business cycles.
Journal Article